Friday, 4 July 2014

Puckerings archive: So Defence Wins Championships, Eh? (16 Mar 2001)

What follows is a post from my old hockey analysis site puckerings.com (later hockeythink.com). It is reproduced here for posterity; bear in mind this writing is over a decade old and I may not even agree with it myself anymore. This post was originally published on March 16, 2001 and was last updated on July 4, 2002.


So Defence Wins Championships, Eh?
Copyright Iain Fyffe, 2002


One of the most widely-held convictions (which is to say, myths) in hockey is that "defence wins championships". For instance, during the 2001 NHL All-Star Game broadcast on CBC on February 4, Pat LaFontaine said that "defence wins championships", and noted that "everybody" knows this. It may seem obvious to anyone who actually thinks about this statement that it is probably false. But let's see if we can demonstrate this with some analysis.

The contention is apparently that defence is more important than offence in winning championships (does no one remember the Oilers and Penguins?). Just thinking about this assertion leads to some conclusions: defence shouldn't be any more important than offence; the important thing would seem to be the difference between the two. That is, the most important thing in winning a hockey game is scoring more goals than your opponents do. This seems fairly obvious, since it is the factor by which the winner of a game is actually determined.

So this is my prediction: goal differential (GD) is more important than both goals for (GF) and goals against (GA) in predicting champions. To test this, I examined every NHL season from 1926/27 to 1999/2000; the starting point was chosen because it is when the NHL took exclusive control of the Cup. We therefore will not have to compare teams from different leagues in doing this analysis. For each of these 74 years, I noted the following: the Cup-winning team, the number of teams in the league, the winner's rank in GF, the winner's rank in GA (lowest GA being best), and the winner's rank in GD.

Using this data, we can make some observations simply by inspection: The team with the league's best offence won the Cup 24 of 74 years; the best defence won 26 of 74, and the best GD won 29 of 74. This supports my prediction. For Cup winners, the most important factor (that is, the best-ranked factor) is distributed as follows: GF 40, GA 44, and GD 46. This adds to greater than 74 due to ties. This is more support, albeit slim, for my prediction.

Now I hear you all yelling, "Come on, Iain! Get to the real numbers!" Well here you go. Before describing what I did, I'll cover what I didn't do. One thought was to compare the champions' GF, GA, and GD to the league averages. This won't work, of course, because the average GD for any year must be zero. We could compare the champion's GF, GA and GD to the league's best GF, GA and GD that year. This cannot be done either, because while GF and GA have a downward limit (zero), GD can be negative, with no absolute limit. This prevents any direct comparison of the numbers. So, we must use rankings to compare them. I did this using percentiles.

For each Cup winner, I calculated their percentile scores for each of GF, GA, and GD using their ranks in each category. For example, a team's percentile in GF is calculated as follows:

GFRnk / TMS x 100

Where GFRnk is the team's rank in GF, and TMS is the number of teams in the league.
Thus, if a team ranked first out of 10 teams, it was in the top ten percent, while if it ranked tenth, it was only in the top 100 percent. The lower the percentile, the more important the factor is in predicting championships. I then calculated the average percentiles for each category. The results:

GF: 28.7
GA: 28.2
GD: 22.2

That is, the average champion ranks in the top 28.7% in GF, the top 28.2% in GA, and the top 22.2% in GD. Notice that while GF and GA are virtually identical, GD is significantly better-ranked, and is therefore more important.

In conclusion, no matter how you look at it, defence by itself does not win championships. Nor does offence. It's the ability to outscore your opponents by the greatest degree that matters. This may seem so obvious that it's not even worth noting, but given the comments of LaFontaine and the majority of sportscasters, it needs to be said, and said often.

Tuesday, 1 July 2014

In-Depth Review: L'histoire du hockey au Québec, Part 1

I've done a few book reviews in the past, but I'm going to try something a bit different this time. Last week I had to look something up in a book that's been sitting in my hockey history library for some time. In doing so, I realized I had never actually read the book in its entirety, only ever really using it for reference. So I decided it was time to read the thing, and when going through the first chapter I realized there was probably a lot of meat for some blog posts in there. So this will be a series of posts, making up an in-depth, chapter-by-chapter review of the book from my analytical perspective. The book is quite dense and scholarly, and intentionally so, and as such I think it's appropriate to devote some time to it.

The book is L'histoire du hockey au Québec: Origine et développement d'un phénomène culturel avant 1917 ("The History of Hockey in Quebec: The origin and development of a cultural phenomenon before 1917"), published in 1990. It was written by Donald Guay (b.1934), a Quebec historian who has published well over a dozen works, mostly on the subject of Quebec sports history. As you may have surmised, it's written in French. As such, any time I quote from the book, I will provide both the original passage in bold italics, followed by my translation in regular italics.

The book is made up of five chapters, and I intend to cover each one in some detail. I'm not going to read ahead, I'm going to review each chapter as I go through it. Some chapters, at least, will be broken up into multiple parts (I know this because chapter three is about four times as long as any other chapter in the book, and besides that, as you'll see I won't even get through chapter one in this fairly large post).

So let's introduce the series, naturally enough, by addressing the introduction.

Introduction

In the introduction, Guay posits that despite the enormous role hockey plays in Canadian society, historians and sociologists have not (at least as of 1990) devoted a great deal of attention to it. I think this is largely a fair comment; there was certainly nothing like The Hockey Conference at the time this book was written. As such, Guay suggests that he will be examining a number of important questions about the history of hockey in Canada, and specifically addressing them from a French-Canadian sociocultural perspective. I won't be spending too much time commenting on the French-Canadian perspective, since I cannot claim to have much insight in that regard. I will, however, be commenting on the information and arguments in the book having to do with hockey history specifically.

Some of the questions Guay intends to ask (and hopefully answer) are:
  • When were the matches played in the sport of hockey?
  • Who organized these first matches?
  • How, when and by who were the first hockey clubs and leagues formed?
  • What part did French Canadians play in the development of hockey in Canada?
So we can see that Guy does not intend to focus solely on the French-Canadian perspective; he's asking some very basic questions about Canadian hockey history here, which should give us a lot to discuss. Chapter one focuses on the origins of hockey; chapter two discusses the evolution of various component parts of the game (such as the puck and stick); chapter three examines the organization of the sport at various levels; chapter four studies the growth in popularity of hockey; and chapter five discusses some of the problematic aspects of the game, such as violence. With that in mind, let's get started with chapter one.

Chapter One: Les origines du hockey ("the origins of hockey")

You may have noticed that in the first question above, I used the term "sport of hockey" when referring to the first hockey matches. This is not my distinction, but Guay's. The first part of chapter one is spent discussing the difference between «des jeux» ("games") and «le sport» ("sport".) Guay suggests that it is important to differentiate between a sport and other forms of physical activity, and to do so he suggests six observable criteria resulting from an «étude empirique» ("empirical study") of sport and games. I'm not entirely sure it's proper to use the term empirical here, as we'll see when we discuss the criteria below, some of which seem rather subjective to me.

Guay summarizes these six criteria into a definition of sport (as opposed to a game) as follows:

«Le sport est donc une activité physique compétitve et amusante pratiquée en vue d'un enjeu selon des règles écrites et un esprit particulier, l'esprit sportif.» (Guay p.19)

"Sport is therefore a competitive, but fun, physical activity played with something at stake, using written rules and according to a spirit of sportsmanship."

The last part of this definition strikes me as possibly circular; sport is something played according to a spirit of sportsmanship. Okay, what is a sporting spirit then? Guay expands on this here:

«L'esprit sportif, la mentalité sportive comprend des valeurs qui orientent, guident les attitudes et les conduites des sportives et des sportifs. C'est une éthique fondée sur l'équité, le désir de vaincre et la loyauté. L'esprit sportif, c'est cette volunté de vaincre, mais de vaincre loyalement sure un adversaire de calibre.» (Guay p.19)

"Sportsmanship, or the sporting mindset, is defined by the values that guide the attitudes and actions of sportswomen and sportsmen. It's an ethic based on fairness, the desire to win and honour. Sportsmanship is this will to win, but to win honourably against a quality opponent."

You will notice that this is arguably results in quite a narrow definition, and my fear when reading it is that it will be later used by the author to exclude professional hockey from the definition of sport, or indeed whatever version of the activity that he wishes to exclude. Guay seems to be using a more old-fashioned, olde-tyme elitist definition of sport and sportsman, from the days when such activities were undertaken solely by gentlemen and gentlewomen, without the sweaty lower classes being involved. The implication seems to be one of praise for the mythic virtues of amateur sport above all else.

The reference to fun is also a bit odd. One might think that fun or enjoyment is more characteristic of a game than a sport, as a sport can often be far more competitive that a casual game. But Guay suggests that while opponents on a sporting playing field may be the greatest of rivals, for his purposes something is not a sport unless the participants take pleasure in the playing, because «le sport n'est qu'un jeu.» ("sport is nothing but a game.") I trust I'm not the only one confused by this bit; most of the criteria seem to be showing how much a sport is the same as a game, rather than differentiating them.

One also worries that this definition is established in order to later enshrine Montreal as the birthplace of hockey. It's too early so say, but I'm seeing signs of it going in that direction.For example, it refers to written rules. But why must the rules be written in order for something to be a sport, or sporting rather? Are unwritten rules insufficient for sporting gentlemen to engage in sport?

With respect to the «enjeu» ("stake"), Guay does not in fact mean that there must be some tangible prize, or else much of amateur sporting would be excluded by this. By the stake, he suggests that sportsmen are seeking victory «qui confère satisfaction, honneurs, gloire, argent, etc.» ("which provides satisfaction, honour, glory, money, etc."). So the stake can be anything (tangible or otherwise) that the participant values. This is fine, but I can't see how it serves any purpose to differentiate a sport from a game. Does anyone play a game without getting anything out of it? If satisfaction from participating in the activity is sufficient, then that's broad enough to cover pretty much every game ever played by anyone, be it a physical activity or not.

Indeed, since Guay is attempting to differentiate between two types of physical activity, one which he calls a game and one which he calls a sport, I don't think his definition accomplishes this goal. A sport is a physical activity; but in this context so is a game, since Guay refers only to non-sport physical activities and does not mean board games or anything similar by the term. A sport is competitive; but games can clearly be competitive as well. Most games are, I would suggest. A sport is fun, but so is a game, I think you'd agree (otherwise, why play it?) A sport has something at stake, but Guay's definition of stake is so broad that it cannot exclude someone playing a game because he or she simply enjoys doing so. A sport has written rules, but many games do as well, so that draws no distinction. This leaves only the final criteria, sportsmanship, to tell the difference between sports and games.

This distinction may actually be clearer in English than in French. The English term sportsmanship is recognized as a positive thing, while the similar term gamesmanship has a negative connotation. The former suggests being straightforward and honest, playing a game honourably as Guay would suggest, while the latter suggests underhandedness, doing whatever it takes to win, exploiting loopholes in the rules, that sort of thing. But I question whether this is a valid distinction between sports and games, since it has to do only with the mindset of the participants rather than the activity itself. It's surely possible to play a game in a sportsmanlike manner, and to use gamesmanship in a sport (using more everyday meanings of sport and game). Moreover, this means that a specific instance of an activity can be considered both a sport and a game at the same time, depending on which player's perspective you are examining. One player could be in it for honourable victory, while another may be thinking he would kill someone's grandmother just to score an extra point. Since Guay purports to be looking at the origins of hockey as a sport in Canada, the first time the sport of hockey was played in Canada, I suggest that he cannot rely on the mindset of individual participants to make such a determination. How could he know, for example, that of the 18 men who played in the March 3, 1875 hockey match in Montreal (which we will discuss), they all had honourable victory as their goal? No, it would be far better for the criteria to be solely about the nature of the activity itself, not dependant on what the participants may or may not have been thinking.

But even if Guay is drawing a valid distinction with the criteria of sportsmanship, I daresay this does not line up with what most people understand as the difference between sport and game. For example, compare modern shinny and hockey. The former can be called a game, and the latter a sport. Shinny is much more informal than hockey, often played on a pick-up basis with minimal rules, no referee, that sort of thing. Meanwhile hockey typically implies a scheduled match between organized teams. I suggest the modern understanding of games versus sports has much more to do with the level of organization in the activity, while Guay is putting forward something of an archaic distinction, based on ideals that (in my opinion) never really existed. Even at the time when amateur sports were placed on a pedestal above professional sports, these ideals were mythical. Amateur hockey, for example, had lots of gamesmanship and shenanigans, betraying the fact that the participants were often more interested in victory than making sure the victory was honourable.

As such, I find Guay's definition of sport to be unconvincing, incomplete, and ultimately unnecessary. Why do we even need to distinguish between a game and a sport? Why are the origins of the game of hockey not interesting, but the origins of the sport of hockey are? At any rate, let's move on. We'll keep this attempted distinction in mind if it becomes relevant later.

Actually, it becomes relevant almost immediately - this is what you get when I write a review as I read the book. Guay proceeds to discuss the idea that hockey had its origins in ancient civilizations, such as the Greeks or Persians. He's obviously now referring to hockey in the general sense of hitting a thing with a stick, rather than a specific form of such activity such as ice hockey. It's notable at this point that while Guay has tried to define what a sport is, he has made no attempt to define what hockey is. This is an unfortunate tendency in hockey historical writing, to jump around between meanings of hockey without noting that you are discussing different things.

Indeed, Guay criticizes others for seemingly attempting to push the history of hockey as far back as possible. He apparently fails to recognize the distinction between the modern meaning of hockey and the older, more general meaning. Of course, this may not be entirely his fault, since the authors he refers to may not have explicitly made that distinction themselves; as I said, that's a common problem. Guay states (p.23) that while these games «...aient une certaine ressemblance avec le hockey comtemporain, on ne peut affirmer que ce soit du hockey...» ("...have a certain resemblance to modern hockey, we cannot confirm that they are hockey...) I'm seeing more worrying signs here. This sounds like Guay is going to argue that while earlier, pre-Canadian versions of the game are not really hockey because they do not sufficiently resemble what we now call hockey. Of course, the first hockey matches played in Montreal in the 1870s also suffer from this issue, in that they were very different from the modern version of the game, but that is often glossed over by proponents of the Montreal birthplace idea. It's too early to judge, but I've seen this before so we'll keep out eyes open for it. It would help, of course, if Guay would define what he means by hockey, but unfortunately he does not.

Guay takes a different tack, referring to these ancient activities as games, not sports, thus illustrating why he built up a distinction in the first place. He says that since we cannot directly connect these "games" with the "sport" of hockey played in Canada since the late 19th century, they cannot be called hockey. Moreover, since as discussed above the distinction between game and sport that Guay makes seems predicated solely on "sportsmanship", he seems to be saying that sportsmanship is a recent invention, that ancient peoples could not have possessed it. A cynic might be inclined to say that the definition of sport is therefore written to exclude all forms of games from before the last couple of hundred years from the discussion. We'll see how it goes.

Next time, we'll look at Guay's discussion of a few "birthplace" claims for ice hockey, and his own statements about the birth of that sport.

Friday, 27 June 2014

Puckerings archive: Playoff Scoring Levels (16 Mar 2001)

What follows is a post from my old hockey analysis site puckerings.com (later hockeythink.com). It is reproduced here for posterity; bear in mind this writing is over a decade old and I may not even agree with it myself anymore. This post was originally published on March 16, 2001 and was updated on April 8, 2002.


Playoff Scoring Levels
Copyright Iain Fyffe, 2002


Playoff hockey is often seen as being tight-checking and low-scoring, and there is some truth to that. Playoff hockey does not suffer from the same bullshit that the regular season brings; for instance, goons do not play during the playoffs, and fighting is therefore extremely rare. But the question is, how much lower are scoring levels in the playoffs?

The answer to this question has been sought before, by Klein and Reif (KR). Unfortunately, their analysis is flawed. Their point is valid, but they make a mathematical error. Here is the passage:
“The most pervasive belief surrounding hockey is that it is much tighter than the regular-season variety of the game. “Playoff hockey” is the phrase, and it automatically triggers the image of a close-checking, conservatively played 2-1 or 1-0 game. The truth is, though, that the average playoff game features only about 13 per cent fewer goals that the average regular-season game.” (pp.196-198).

A bit overstated, if you ask me, but the point is valid. There is a belief that playoff games are lower-scoring, and it is indeed true. KR mention that playoff games have about 13 per cent fewer goals than regular-season games, although the numbers they present actually suggest the figure is 12 per cent. How do they calculate this? The same way that everyone calculates this figure: they compare regular-season goals-per-game averages to playoff goals-per-game averages. This is a very common error. This method is too simplistic.

The problem is that not all teams make the playoffs. Therefore, if we include all teams in one group (regular-season), but limit the other group to only some teams (playoffs), bias can occur. I will show KR’s data, with additional data that excludes non-playoff teams from the regular-season goals-per game calculations.

I have limited my analysis to the years used by KR. The table presents the following figures:

RSGPG: The regular-season goals-per-game average, as calculated by KR.
PLGPG: The playoff average, per KR.
PLRat: The ratio of playoff GPGA to regular-season GPGA.
FRGPG: The regular-season goals-per-game average, excluding teams that did not make the playoffs. To be honest, I did not calculate these directly, because I’m too lazy (but this extremely small inaccuracy does not affect my point). I used KR’s numbers for GPGA and the total goals in the NHL for that year to compute total minutes, and then calculated an average minutes per team and used that as my minutes for playoff teams in the regular season. he distortion this would cause is negligible.

FRRat: The same ratio as above, calculated using the Fair GPGA.

 Year  RSGPG  PLGPG  PLRat  FRGPG  FRRat
 1936-37  4.75  3.48  .733  4.62  .753
 1937-38  4.88  3.81  .781  4.89  .779
 1938-39  4.91  3.54  .721  4.98  .711
 1939-40  4.84  4.04  .828  4.78  .839
 1940-41  5.12  4.16  .811  5.03  .827
 1941-42  6.05  5.24  .866  6.02  .870
 1942-43  7.20  5.58  .776  6.95  .803
 1943-44  8.17  5.51  .675  7.44  .741
 1944-45  7.35  4.73  .643  7.35  .643
 1945-46  6.69  6.13  .916  6.56  .934
 1946-47  6.32  4.87  .771  6.06  .804
 1947-48  5.86  5.69  .972  5.72  .995
 1948-49  5.43  4.26  .785  5.28  .807
 1949-50  5.47  4.07  .745  5.09  .800
 1950-51  5.42  3.80  .701  5.20  .731
 1951-52  5.19  3.82  .735  4.89  .781
 1952-53  4.79  5.40  1.128  4.74  1.139
 1953-54  4.80  4.18  .869  4.64  .901
 1954-55  5.04  4.61  1.112  4.86  1.154
 1955-56  5.07  5.57  1.100  5.09  1.094
 1956-57  5.38  5.51  1.024  5.36  1.028
 1957-58  5.60  6.05  1.081  5.60  1.081
 1958-59  5.77  5.91  1.024  5.80  1.019
 1959-60  5.90  5.10  .866  5.65  .903
 1960-61  6.00  4.65  .774  5.85  .795
 1961-62  6.02  5.54  .921  5.87  .944
 1962-63  5.95  5.69  .956  5.63  1.011
 1963-64  5.55  4.79  .863  5.43  .882
 1964-65  5.75  5.06  .880  5.61  .902
 1965-66  6.08  5.30  .881  5.89  .900
 1966-67  5.96  5.25  .880  5.77  .910
 1967-68  5.58  5.34  .957  5.55  .962
 1968-69  5.96  5.56  .933  5.84  .952
 1969-70  5.81  6.00  1.033  5.77  1.040
 1970-71  6.24  5.93  .950  6.37  .931
 1971-72  6.13  6.04  .985  5.98  1.010
 1972-73  6.55  6.27  .957  6.55  .957
 1973-74  6.39  5.68  .889  6.32  .899
 1974-75  6.85  6.07  .887  6.84  .887
 1975-76  6.82  5.65  .828  6.82  .828
 1976-77  6.64  6.24  .939  6.63  .941
 1977-78  6.59  5.67  .860  6.29  .901
 1978-79  7.00  6.02  .860  6.95  .866
 1979-80  7.03  6.51  .926  7.07  .921
 1980-81  7.69  7.77  1.010  7.67  1.013
 1981-82  8.02  6.99  .872  8.05  .868
 1982-83  7.73  7.45  .964  7.67  .971
 1983-84  7.80  6.21  .796  7.76  .800
 1984-85  7.68  7.34  .956  7.65  .959
 1985-86  7.86  6.43  .818  7.81  .823
 1986-87  7.25  6.13  .845  7.17  .855
 Average  6.18  5.44  6.07

There are 51 years here. Of these 51 years, the FRGPG is lower than the RSGPG 40 times, higher 7 times, and the same 4 times. So clearly, there is a degree of distortion in KR’s numbers. The difference is generally minor, but it is still there.

What can we learn from this? Really, only that bad teams tend to play high-scoring games, usually because they allow a lot of goals. When you remove them from the mix, goals-per-game figures drop. But that’s not really the point.

The point is that when you do statistical analysis, you should strive to get it right. It is very easy to lie with statistics, as they say, so it is critical to eliminate flaws in your analysis. It’s ironic, because if KR had performed their analysis the proper way, it would have provided somewhat stronger support for their assertion that playoff scoring isn’t as low as many people think. By my analysis, playoff scoring is 10% lower; by theirs, it’s 12%. So you see, doing the numbers right can get you stronger support for your position.

Reference

Klein, J. and K.E. Reif. The Klein and Reif Hockey Compendium (revised edition). Toronto: McClelland and Stewart, 1987.

Friday, 20 June 2014

Puckerings archive: Estimating Ice Time (14 Mar 2001)

What follows is a post from my old hockey analysis site puckerings.com (later hockeythink.com). It is reproduced here for posterity; bear in mind this writing is over a decade old and I may not even agree with it myself anymore. This post was originally published on March 14, 2001 and was updated on November 26, 2002.
 

Estimating Ice Time
Copyright Iain Fyffe, 2002


The NHL’s Real-Time Scoring System statistics have shed much light upon hockey statistics since their inception in 1998. One of the most interesting stats that is now finally tracked is player ice time. We now have actual, official numbers for how much time each player spends on the ice. This is fine and good for stats from the past few seasons, but what about all those seasons before 1998? This essay outlines a method for estimating ice times for all players since the 1967-68 season. Unfortunately, the data needed for this method is not available for seasons before the Great Expansion.

The method is based on the idea that the number of goals a player is on the ice for, relative to the total goals his team is involved in, should give a good indication of the proportion of total time that a player is on the ice. Of course, it's not really that simple. Individual players affect the rate at which goals are scored, both for and against. Goals are also scored at a much higher rate when a team is on the power-play. This method attempts to account for such factors as much as possible.

To test the accuracy of the method, actual ice time data from the 1998-99 Mighty Ducks, Bruins and Sabres (a sample of 93 players) will be used. The following terms will be used:

TGF - Total goals scored by a player’s team when that player is on the ice
PGF - Total power-play goals among TGF
TGA - Total goals against a player’s team when that player is on the ice
PGA - Total power-play goals among TGA

A starting point is estimating ice time based upon TGF. If a team played 5,000 minutes and scored 250 goals, then each TGF for a player would imply 20 (5,000/250) minutes of ice time. So if a player was on the ice for 100 goals (that is, his TGF stat is 100), this would imply 2,000 minutes of playing time. We can make the same simple estimate using TGA figures as well. Since there is no sound reason to prefer one estimate over the other, the average of the two is used.

The above estimates ignore one very important fact. Goals are scored at a much higher rate on the power-play than at even strength. Power-play goals and power-play time must be considered. Unfortunately, the actual amount of time teams spend on the power-play and short-handed is not readily available, so estimates must be used.

Team power-play and short-handed time can be estimated using the following formulae:

PPMINT = 2 x PPO x [(PPO - PPG) / PPO]
SHMINT = 2 x TSH x [(TSH - PPA) / TSH]

Where PPMINT is estimated team power-play minutes, SHMINT is estimated team short-handed minutes, PPO is power-play opportunities, TSH is times short-handed, PPG is team power-play goals and PPA is team power-play goals against.

To demonstrate the accuracy of these formulae, I selected a random sample of team situations form the 2000-01 NHL season. This season is used because ice time data for players is available broken down by situation. This allows me to calculate a very close apporximation of each team's minutes in each situation. I cannot be 100 percent precise, for two reasons: the time breakdowns are not split out for traded players, and there are not always the same number of players on the ice at all times. I used an average of 4.9 players on the ice for power-plays, and 3.9 for shorthanded situations. The following table shows the team and situation, the "actual" minutes for that situation, and the estimated minutes calculated using the appropriate formula.

 Team  Situation  Actual  Estimate
 Cgy  SH  604  610
 Col  PP  566  612
 Clb  PP  650  667
 Clb  SH  586  541
 Edm  SH  640  622
 Nsh  SH  564  534
 NJ  SH  542  552
 Phi  PP  590  554
 SJ  PP  698  688
 Van  PP  690  702
 MEAN  608  608

The standard error of the estimate is 30 minutes, or approximately 5 percent of the mean. This demonstrates the high degree of accuracy given by the formulae.

Using the above estimates, a team’s time can now be split into two types: power-play and non-power-play, for both goals for and against. By splitting TGF and TGA into power-play (PGF and PGA) and non-power-play components, the accuracy of the ice time estimate is improved. For example, say a team has 500 power-play minutes and 4,500 non-power-play minutes. This team scores 50 power-play goals, and 200 non-power-play goals. For every power-play goal a player is on the ice for, he should have 10 minutes of ice time (500/50). For every non-power-play goal, he should have 22.5 minutes of ice time (4,500/200). So if a player has 150 TGF (remember, this includes PGF) and 50 PGF, his ice time estimate would be 2,750 minutes (500 for power-play, 2,250 for non-power-play).

Introducing this factor improves the accuracy of the method. However, even when we include the adjustment for power-play time, we still have distortion caused by superior and inferior players. For instance, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux will have their ice times overestimated because they raise the rate their teams score goals when they are on the ice drastically. Conversely, their lower-scoring teammates will have their ice times underestimated, on the whole.
This problem cannot be completely eliminated, but its effects can be limited. By introducing a normalizing factor, we can improve the estimates of all players. This factor represents the average ice time a typical player would have. It serves to draw all players toward the average, thereby reducing the distortion caused by extreme statistics. For the test group, I used the following factors, which were determined to minimize the standard error of the estimate:
Forwards: 14 minutes per game (MPG) for first-, second-, or third-line players, 10 MPG for fourth-line players.

Defence: 22 MPG for the first pair, 18 for the second, 17 for the third.
The determination of who is a first-pair defenceman as opposed to a second-pair defenceman (for instance) can be fairly subjective, but is usually fairly obvious based on inspection.

The ice time estimate is the average of this normalizing factor and the estimates based on goals for and goals against (considering power-play and non-power-play situations), as follows:

MIN = (GFMIN + GAMIN + NORM) / 3

Where MIN is the estimated total minutes, GFMIN is the estimate based on goals for, GAMIN is the estimate based on goals against, and NORM is the estimate based on the normalizing factor.

The following table presents the results of the test group, including the mean actual ice time (MEAN), the standard error of the estimate (STE), and the STE expressed as a percentage of the mean (%).

 Group  MEAN  STE  %
 All players  779  89  11.4
 Forwards  748  80  10.7
 Defencemen  826  92  11.1

The method presented above is a very accurate one for estimating the amount of time players spend on the ice. Having these numbers at our disposal will aid in any analysis of statistical information for players before 1997-98, when actual ice times numbers were first recorded.

Wednesday, 18 June 2014

On His Own Side of the Puck - media mention

My book On His Own Side of the Puck was mentioned in the Marek vs. Wyshynski podcast on June 16. You can listen to the bit in question here. Jeff Marek is a SIHR member and seems to enjoy the book, specifically mentioning the preface, which I agree is probably the best part of the book.

The mention has led to a few people asking me whether I have an ebook edition available. I had previously offered an ebook on Blurb, however I was not happy with how the conversion turned out there so I no longer offer it for sale. I am currently looking at Createspace/Amazon as a means to create a Kindle version, which is also readable on an iPad with the appropriate app. I will let y'all know when this is ready to go.



Monday, 2 June 2014

On the Origin of Organized Hockey

My last post was a review of the new book On the Origin of Hockey, which presents a great deal of new evidence about early ice hockey, especially as it was played in England. One of the conclusions you can draw from the book is that giving special status to the first recorded, organized hockey game in Canada (played in Montreal on March 3, 1875) does not make sense, given that there are earlier games played in England that were just as organized and just as much hockey as that one. That is, if the first Montreal game is an example of organized hockey, then there are several earlier matches in England that should be considered organized hockey as well. So I thought I'd take you through the process, to show that this conclusion is well-founded.

We start with the definition of hockey in general, which we take from the Society for International Hockey Research's (SIHR) Report of the Sub-Committee Looking into Claim that Windsor, Nova Scotia, is the Birthplace of Hockey. In 2002 this report concluded that all a game needs to be considered (ice) hockey is that it is played on an ice rink by two opposing teams of skaters who use curved sticks to try to drive a small propellant into or through opposite goals.

This definition was arrived at because the committee writing the report needed terms of reference to determine when something is hockey and when it is not. The committee correctly concluded that there is no compelling evidence to conclude that Windsor is the birthplace of hockey. The primary point presented by proponents of the Windsor claim, for example, was from a work of fiction wherein one fictional character is imagining what the youth of another fictional character might have been like. It is thoroughly unconvincing and is rightly dismissed as evidence that hockey was played at a particular time in a particular place. So in fact the definition of hockey was not really needed, due to the nature of the evidence being examined.

However, the committee did engage in a bit of digression about the first recorded hockey match played in Montreal, which was on March 3, 1875. This might have been relevant had the Windsor claim suggested that hockey began in Nova Scotia later than 1875, in which case the Montreal game would have been evidence against that. But that's not the case, so it seems the committee might have been suggesting that Montreal should be considered the birthplace of hockey, though they explicitly state that is not the intent.

The committee noted that the Montreal game seems to mark the transition of hockey from a pastime to a dedicated sporting endeavour: "The March 3 event, structured as it was, invites a distinction between formal and informal hockey..." This raises the question, of course, of what the committee saw in this match that is not present in earlier reports of hockey. They explained:

"The match appears to be unique. It is the earliest eyewitness account known, at least to this SIHR committee, of a specific game of hockey in a specific place at a specific time, and with a recorded score, between two identified teams."

So the purpose of discussing the Montreal game actually seems to have been to put it forward as the birthplace of formal, or organized, hockey rather than hockey in general. Based on newspaper reports, we know the following details about this first hockey match in Montreal: that it was played at the Victoria Skating Rink in Montreal on March 3, 1875 between two teams of nine men each (the names of which were recorded); that there was a captain for each team; that they used a flat, circular piece of wood instead of a ball; that they tried to drive said object through the opposing goal; that there were spectators; and that captain Creighton's team defeated captain Torrance's team by two goals to nil (but we do not know who scored the goals). Both teams were selected from members of the Victoria Skating Club.

If we combine the criteria for formality with the earlier criteria for hockey presented by the committee, we can derive the committee's implicit definition of formal hockey. Formal hockey would have the following characteristics:
  1. ice rink
  2. players wearing skates
  3. players using curved sticks
  4. trying to drive a small propellant
  5. opposite goals
  6. game played in a specific place at a specific time
  7. recorded score
  8. two identified, opposing teams
According to the report's own words, the 1875 Montreal game was the earliest to meet these criteria at the time the report was written, in 2002. It is therefore entirely possible that in the 12 years since then, additional references would have been found of games that match them. The great amount of digitization of old newspapers that has occurred in the past few years only increases the ease at which such references can be found.

On the Origin of Hockey produces several candidate games, that may be considered "organized hockey" using these criteria. Great credit must be given to the authors Carl Giden, Patrick Houda and Jean-Patrice Martel for unearthing and presenting the reports of these games. Let's examine a few.

Moor Park, Hertfordshire - February 2, 1871
I mentioned this match in the review. We know it was hockey, we know the teams, we know the score, we even know the lineups and the goal-scorers. We know about as much about this match as we do the first Montreal game. Specific reference is made to the ice, and the fact that it is called hockey necessarily entails sticks and a propellant, since all descriptions of hockey from that time period and before involve such things. The goals are also specifically mentioned, and the two seven-man teams are listed. A brief goal-by-goal account is provided, and a 10-minute intermission is also mentioned. Unfortunately it does not specifically refer to skates, so in theory someone could object to it on that basis. In the book, the authors present a convincing argument that the skates are implicit, however we do have to recognize that they are not specifically mentioned. Moreover, skates were also not specifically mentioned in the reports of the March 3, 1875 game in Montreal, so if the lack of a specific mention is a problem for Moor Park, then it's a problem for Montreal as well.

Elsham, Lincolnshire - January 6, 1871
On this date, two eight-man teams played to a draw after nearly 90 minutes of hockey. The two identified sides were Elsham and Brigg, and the newspaper reports make it clear that this match involved an ice rink, players wearing skates, using sticks and trying to drive an object through opposite goals. We know that the game was planned ahead of time (Colonel Astley had invited the men from Brigg to come play a match), and was played in a particular place at a particular time. We do not know the precise score, but we do know for certain that a score was kept because the match was declared a draw. All of the implicit criteria for formal hockey seem to be represented in this game.

In fact, these two teams later played a rematch, so it's clear that having a decision on the score was important to the players involved. The second match was played on February 4, 1871 and this time Elsham walked over Brigg by a score of eight to nil. Brigg surrendered 15 minutes before time was up, so we know that there was a specific time that was to be allowed for the game. The ice was said to be in excellent condition for the game.

Bluntisham-cum-Earith, Huntingdonshire - January 4, 1871
This was a big week for early organized hockey, with matches only two days apart, though over 150 kilometres in distance from each other. In this case the teams were 20-a-side, one representing Bluntisham & Earith (the "Bury Fen team") and the other from Over & Swavesey. The former side scored a victory two goals to nil. Once again all of the criteria for formal hockey as indicated by SIHR seem to be met in this match. We even know the names of the team captains.

Spetchley, Worcestershire - December 28, 1870
This is the second match mentioned in the review, and similar to the first we know the (10-man) teams, the score, the lineups and the goal-scorers. In one of the reports describing the game, it is under the heading "skating" so in this case (unlike Moor Park above), we know for certain that there were skates involved.

So the winter of 1870/71 was a busy time for early organized hockey in England. Unfortunately for the sporting fans of that country, it did not seem to really catch on, at least not the way it did in Canada some few years later. But there is an even older candidate for the earliest known game of organized ice hockey, over 13 years before this busy winter.

Swavesey, Cambridgeshire - February 5, 1857
On this date, teams from Over and Swavesey met in a match of "bandy", almost 24 years before they would band together to play against Bluntisham & Earith as noted above. At this time, of course, there is no way to differentiate between hockey and bandy when played on the ice, since the rules of each that would allow us to tell them apart had not been standardized yet. Bandy was simply a form of hockey, as the authors of the book argue in some detail. All of the criteria appear to be met in this game as well. Swavesey won the match, though the exact score was not reported. So this is not quite as good an example as some of the 1870/71 matches, but it is worth considering.

Conclusion

Not all of these games are precise matches for the apparent SIHR criteria to be considered organized hockey. But it is abundantly clear that the level of organization of the Montreal match of March 3, 1875 was  not unique for its time. There were formal games of ice hockey played in England at least four years before that time, and perhaps as much as 18 years before.

What is unique about Montreal is what happened in the years after that first game, as the sport slowly grew in popularity, and interest really began to take off with the first Montreal Winter Carnival tournament in 1883. But assigning special value to the 1875 game is not supportable, given that we now have evidence of a number of very similar matches played previously in England. Canada certainly made hockey into the great winter game, but it was built upon a foundation that first arrived from England.

Wednesday, 28 May 2014

The Voyage of the Puck, or the Ascent of Hockey

Full disclosure: I consider the authors of On the Origin of Hockey to be colleagues, and at least one of them to be a friend. I received my copy of the book at no charge, however this was simply as a result of attending the 2014 Annual General Meeting of the Society for International Hockey Research; everyone there was given a copy. Furthermore, the authors make at least one very complimentary reference to my own book in their work. I suppose you could use all of that to discount my opinion of their work entirely. All I can do is assure you that the identity of the authors did not affect my reaction to this book. Besides, there are already so many valid reasons to discount my opinion entirely that you really don't need to go making another one up, now do you?

A review of On the Origin of Hockey

You may have seen some of the many headlines in response to the new book On the Origin of Hockey, which was launched this past weekend, declaring that “Hockey is actually an English game!” or words to that effect. The book is purported to prove that hockey, the game so long considered to be a Canadian one, was really born in England. Is this true? Have the Canadian origins of the great winter game been completely refuted?

The short answer is no, not really. But fortunately for the authors (Carl Giden, Patrick Houda and Jean-Patrice Martel, or GHM for short), that's not what they claim to prove. They are clear that the transition from the early forms of hockey to the modern version was given impetus and took place in Canada, and without the Canadian influence the sport would not be the great one that we have today. If we look at the very last paragraph in the book, for instance, we see that GHM have no interest in declaring hockey anything other than Canadian:
Today, regardless of where it is played, hockey is a truly Canadian game. That is the legacy of the first Montreal game, thanks in large part to the leadership of James Creighton, who recognized how ideally suited to Canada's climate and people the game of ice hockey was, and who masterfully gave it the impulse it needed to become the greatest winter sport that exists. (p. 267)
So we apparently cannot rely on the mainstream media to provide an accurate picture of what the book it about, which is to be expected given the relatively nuanced position that the authors take. But if refuting hockey's Canadianness is not the point of the book, then what is? What conclusions do GHM actually put forth in their work? Fortunately for our purposes, they provide a concise summary of their findings in their final chapter. They are:
1. Ice hockey...was played in England for several decades before it was played in Canada.
2. There were several instances of organized hockey games played in England before the one played on March 3, 1875 in Montreal.
3. No reasonable definition of hockey could be imagined that would include all games played in Montreal since March 3, 1875, but exclude all games played in England to that date.
4. Prior to the 1890s...bandy and hockey were exactly the same activity, called by different names depending on the region.
5. The activity in which children and adults engaged on ice with skates in England in the 19th century – and even before – was not merely a variety of “stick and ball games.” It was hockey.
6. Ice hockey does not have mysterious origins. It came very naturally to English (and other British) field hockey players who took their game to the ice and put on skates when the weather provided such ice, which occurred almost every winter.
(pp.257-259)
None of these statements are merely asserted. Voluminous evidence and analysis is provided to lead the reader clearly to each conclusion. GHM do discuss the “birthplace of hockey” claims made about various Canadian locales, from those with almost nothing to support them (Windsor, Nova Scotia) to those with much more evidence behind them (Halifax, for example). However, the real point is that “birthplace” is an improper term to use, something that other hockey authors have argued in the past (such as Bill Fitsell in How Hockey Happened). The authors acknowledge that there is evidence that early forms of hockey were played at some of these locales in Canada, but present evidence that such hockey was played across the Atlantic before being played in Canada. Ice hockey was not first invented in Canada, but it was certainly grown and developed here. Indeed, the authors admit that they cannot say hockey was invented in England either, just that the earliest recorded evidence (which has been uncovered only recently) for hockey played on ice comes from that country.

In order to reach such a conclusion, GHM rely on a definition of hockey developed by the Society for International Hockey Research (SIHR) in their 2002 Report of the Sub-Committee Looking into Claim that Windsor, Nova Scotia, is the Birthplace of Hockey. This definition consists of only six points: ice surface, two contesting teams, players on skates, use of curved sticks, small propellant (a ball or puck), objective of scoring on opposite goals. (p. 31) The authors clearly demonstrate that, using this definition of hockey, the game was played in England before it was played in Canada.They also forcefully demonstrate that based on this definition, early bandy is not merely a "hockey-like game", it is in fact hockey. If one wishes to call bandy a hockey-like game, one must call the first Montreal game in 1875 a hockey-like game as well.

This is not the first work to suggest that early forms of hockey originated in Britain, ultimately. However, the general consensus has long been that “organized” hockey had its beginnings in Montreal. This is the attitude presented in the SIHR report, which went beyond its mandate of examining the Windsor claim, and put forward Montreal as the birthplace of organized hockey. This is because an organized hockey match was played in Montreal on March 3, 1875, and it is the first recorded game of its kind. Or at least, it was the earliest known recorded match at the time the SIHR report was written.

GHM present volumes of evidence that has been uncovered in the years since the SIHR report was published. For example, the authors discuss a game of hockey that was played on December 27, 1870 in Spetchley, Worcestershire and that was reported in two newspapers. Two 10-man teams played in this match, one representing Worcester and the other, Spetchley. The latter club took the match by a score of 4-3, and we even know the identities of the goal-scorers (Tyler, Yeates and A. Everill for Worcester; Tayler, Wheeler, Dale and Francisco for Spetchley [p. 74]), which is information we are missing for the first Montreal game. As GHM point out, you may be able to develop a definition of organized hockey that would exclude this game but include the first Montreal match, however such a definition would have to be arbitrary and designed specifically to exclude the former. Such a definition would be unreasonable, since this 1870 game has far, far more in common with the 1875 Montreal game than the latter has in common with a 2014 NHL game (for example). It would therefore be silly to group the latter two together while keeping the former two separate.

In fact the authors take to task the very phrase "hockey as we know it today", since it is so often used to justify this division. Hockey before the first Montreal game was not hockey as we know it today, therefore it can be dismissed from being "true" ice hockey. But as GHM point out, the hockey played in Montreal in 1875 is also not "hockey as we know it today", so the argument has no basis. They list a number of examples of offenders in this regard, including me. So I will take this opportunity to retract my comment, with the explanation that it was more a case of lazy writing than actually making the offending argument. I intended to refer to the set of hockey games that can be shown to have evolved directly from the first Montreal game, not to suggest that the first Montreal game was indeed hockey as we know it today.

Astute readers may also notice that the definition or organized hockey that I used in On His Own Side of the Puck may appear to be just such an arbitrary definition, designed to exclude pre-Montreal hockey from consideration. To that I will say that my purpose in writing that definition is very narrow, and it is not intended for general use in the hockey origins discussion. In fact, I was never entirely happy with using the term "organized hockey" for it, but I was short on options. I was trying to describe the set of hockey games that can be shown to have evolved directly from the first Montreal game. I could have used "organized Montreal hockey", I suppose, but its later growth far beyond the borders of that city would make such a term problematic. A more precise term would be "the version of organized hockey that was first played in Montreal in 1875, and all subsequent versions of hockey that can be demonstrated to have developed directly from that version", but I think you'll agree that's more than a bit unwieldy. Ultimately my point is that nothing in GHM's work contradicts my own; they are looking at the entire spiderweb, while I was looking at only a single strand.

There was at least one other recorded game of organized hockey played in England before 1875. On February 2, 1871, the Moor Park team defeated an Oxford side by a score of 5-2. We again know the identities of the goal scorers, and Moor Park's Algernon Grosvenor (a noted sportsman in his lifetime) scored three of them (p. 72), making him the scorer of the first recorded ice hockey hat trick, contrary to what you've previously read here at Hockey Historysis (sorry, Mr. Geddes, that honour no longer belongs to you.)

These are just a few examples of the many astounding bits of evidence that GHM present to support their conclusions. As a researcher myself, the amount of information that these three historians have accumulated from a wide variety of sources is mind-boggling. The result is that there is nothing we can say about early ice hockey that has been shown to have happened in Canada that the authors cannot show happened in England even earlier, and that's the crux of the argument. If you must point at a place to be called ice hockey's birthplace, it would be England (based on the evidence currently available to us). The cradle, however, would be Canada, and that's where the game grew and matured to its heights.

If you are at all interested in the early years of hockey history, and in the development of the game, you absolutely need this book. If, however, you are more interested in holding on to cherished existing ideas about where hockey came from, then you should probably skip it (although I would encourage you to have more intellectual curiosity than that). But if you're looking for facts, this volume cannot be impugned, and it is perhaps the single most important contribution to the study of this aspect of hockey history that has ever been published. And I don't think I am exaggerating that point.
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